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 From the News Desk...Seeking closureby John ReitmanIn the waning days of World War II, probably not many people took notice when the number of golf courses that were closing surpassed the number of openings. The absence of such a dismal outlook no doubt would have been validated by the fact that it took some 60 years for that occurrence to manifest again. Those were the good ole days. Today, the golf industry is staring down the barrel of a fourth consecutive year of negative growth. That trend likely will continue for several more years, according to a report released last month by the National Golf Foundation. According to the NGF report, entitled “The Future of Public Golf in America,” 34 new golf courses (in 18-hole equivalents) have opened through August in the United States, with 50-60 total openings projected by year’s end. On the negative side, 108 golf courses (also in 18-hole equivalents) have closed through August, and there will be more to come through December. At the heart of the matter, according to the report is a basic conflict between supply and demand. According to the report and others in the industry who earn a living analyzing its data, the supply of available golf at the country’s 15,000 or so courses is at least 8 percent ahead of the demand created by the nation’s approximately 27 million golfers. According to the study, rounds played per 18 holes are down about 20 percent, or approximately 8,000 rounds per facility. Such a hit is becoming increasingly difficult for many facilities to absorb. It is estimated that 10-15 percent of the total golf course supply is considered “at risk.” Almost nine of 10 of those courses are operating at a loss, while 60 percent acknowledge they have lowered maintenance standards due to economic stress. That means the trend of negative growth – more golf courses closing than opening – will continue until equilibrium is reached. It is estimated that 10-15 percent of the total golf course supply is considered “at risk.” Almost nine of 10 of those courses are operating at a loss, while 60 percent acknowledge they have lowered maintenance standards due to economic stress.There were 75 more closings than openings from 2006 through 2008. And NGF predicts an additional 500 to 1,000 courses will close over the next five years. That still might not be enough, said one industry analyst. Jim Koppenhaver, a Chicago-based consultant and industry analyst, and principal of Pellucid Corp., spends a lot of time crunching numbers. And he believes the oversupply stand at about 9 percent, requiring a net loss of about 1,400-1,500 courses over the next several years. “By that math, equilibrium is more than five years away, and NGF’s projection that we’ll see that many closures doesn’t answer the real question at hand, which is, after that five-year period will we be back at equilibrium? The other missing piece to the NGF statement is how many courses will open in that same period, which affects net supply growth.” The industry pretty much has accepted the supply and demand level of 1990 as its baseline, according to Jim Koppenhaver, a Chicago-based industry analyst and consultant and the principal of Pellucid Corp. Since then, the number of golfers in the United States has increased by 16 percent to about 26 million while the number of golf courses expanded by 24 percent. Understandably, the number of rounds played per 18 holes is down about 20 percent, or about 8,000 rounds per 18 holes, during that span. Tom Stine, whose Golf Datatech provides a monthly rounds played report, warns against painting the industry with too broad of a brush when it comes to measuring performance – or lack of it. “There are too many golf courses in certain areas, but it’s too general to say we need to shed however many golf courses to reach equilibrium,” said Stine, who also is a golf course owner in Florida. “If you have a drug store on all four corners of an intersection, it doesn’t mean you have too many drug stores. It means you have too many drug stores at that intersection.” Most experts agree that the key to a healthy golf industry rests not only with shedding excess courses, but also with attracting new golfers into the game and convincing existing golfers to play more. For example, according to Koppenhaver’s research, modest growth in rounds played of just 1 percent to 3 percent annually could be enough to cut the time it takes to reach equilibrium in half. Much of the industry’s past hopes have hinged on national growth initiatives, such as those through Golf 2020, a collaborative effort of the PGA Tour, PGA of America, USGA, National Golf Course Owners Association and others. But to date, any efforts to grow the game appear to have missed the mark, given industry statistics. A recent initiative that is part of the Play Golf America campaign launched by the PGA of America has generated hope among some in the industry. Get Golf Ready offers a series of five lessons designed to provide novices with all the tools necessary to step onto the course and play with confidence – for $99. The program, according to its Web site , has partners in 47 states plus Washington, D.C. “Obviously, the industry would like to have more golfers and have current golfers play more. You need both, so you can’t take your eye off one for the sake of the other,” Stine said. “The industry is always trying to attract new golfers, but when it comes right down to it, it is up to the individual golf course to do whatever it has to do to attract new golfers. You can’t legislate a program into place. Each course has to be better at getting more players and getting existing golfers to play more through activities at that particular course. So what does this recent and projected contraction in golf courses and accompanying jobs mean for golf course superintendents? Many have expressed concern that there are too many college turfgrass programs cranking out too many graduates with aspirations of being golf course superintendents. That has resulted in two things, seasoned superintendents being shown the door for a less qualified and cheaper replacement, and an army of assistants nationwide wondering when or if the calling to become a head superintendent will ever come. While we have no intention of closing up shop, we do recognize that the opportunities for our graduates probably will undergo some reduction for a while."At Penn State University, home of one of the country’s oldest and most well known turfgrass management programs, students gradually have been migrating from a focus on golf course management toward a career in caring for sports turf for several years now. “As this has been the trend for some time, I don’t think it’s a reflection on the net loss of golf courses we have been seeing for the past several years,” Turgeon said of the rising popularity of sports turf management as a career focus. “It’s obvious that in many places the demand may be substantially less than the existing capacity. While we have no intention of closing up shop, we do recognize that the opportunities for our graduates probably will undergo some reduction for a while. All we can do is the best job with our current capacity to serve our student populations as well as possible with a first-class educational experience, so that they are well prepared to face the challenges they will confront immediately after graduation and beyond. The market will, I suspect, sort out the rest.” University faculty have a duty to ensure students know what to expect before graduating with a certificate or degree in turfgrass management so they can make informed career decisions, said Rob Golembiewski, Ph.D., turfgrass specialist at Oregon State University. He also believes that those graduates who are best prepared for what lies ahead have the best chance at succeeding, regardless of current economic conditions. “I truly believe we have an obligation to inform students about the state of the industry and the challenges that lie ahead,” Golembiewski said. “Having said this, I still believe that opportunities will exist for students, especially those willing to relocate. The key is student flexibility. I do believe that with fewer job opportunities that the need for a well-rounded education will become even more important.” |
 In other news... Greens of envy Olympic Club members and 2012 U.S. Open reap benefits of converting from Poa annua to bentgrass. Posted: 11/19/2009 Read more » News and people briefs Register now for New England turf show, Toro introduces walk-behind trencher, Sipcam adds to sales staff Posted: 11/19/2009 Read more » A better divot digger Motorized device developed at the University of Arkansas produces uniform damage quickly and could help advance turf recovery research. Posted: 11/19/2009 Read more » Currier moving on from Bethpage Site of this year's U.S. Open to get new superintendent and 15th green. Posted: 11/18/2009 Read more » Economic struggles mean finding more fat to trim Superintendents look for ways to cut due to shrinking budgets. Posted: 11/16/2009 Read more » Complete news index »
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