There's a saying that "you don't know what you don't know."
Loosely translated, it means that it is near impossible to understand the depth of a topic without a basic grasp of the facts. Never has that been more true than with the study of weather, or climatology or whatever label one cares to apply.
There was a TV weatherman in Cincinnati in the 1960s and '70s who almost made a joke of how often forecasts, including his own, were incorrect. Those self-deprecating forecasts centered around a small bell hanging on the wall of meteorologist Todd Hunter's set and a number system next to it that was not unlike the one's used to hold a place in line at a supermarket deli or the DMV. A sign hanging next to the numbered tags read "gongless days."
Each time Hunter made a correct forecast, a number was pulled counting how many consecutive days he was right. When he missed on the previous day's weather forecast, he'd ring the bell and turn the count back to zero. More times than not, Hunter was haunted by that bell.
More than 40 years later, not much has changed in the way scientists predict the weather. Thus, their ability to run together a string of gongless days hasn't improved much since Todd Hunter struggled with it in the days when The Beatles were still kickin' out vinyl.
The fact that weather is an inexact science should be a warning to golf course superintendents not to take too much for granted, especially in California, says Craig Kessler, director of government affairs for the Southern California Golf Association.
The bottom line, with 140 years of weather data, we have no clue how to predict weather patterns."
For years, California was mired in what has been called one of the worst droughts in the state's history. Nowadays, the drought seems like a distant memory. Reservoirs around the state are full or nearly full, and most currently are holding much more than the historic average, according to California's Department of Water Resources. One in particular, the dam at Lake Oroville, recently has been in the news for because of a failing spillway that has sent millions of gallons of water down the Feather River and is a reminder of just how wet it is in California.
Weather forecasts this year and last have gotten it mostly wrong regarding the rain in California, meaning meteorologists probably wouldn't have earned many gongless days under the old Todd Hunter model.
"Last winter, they predicted rain with warm Pacific waters in an El Nino pattern, and we had a dry year," Kessler said. "This year, it was supposed to be the opposite. But we've had, in essence, straight-shot warm, tropical water that we were supposed to get under the El Nino, but that we're getting in a La Nina. The bottom line, with 140 years of weather data, we have no clue how to predict weather patterns."
The snowpack in the upper elevations of the Sierra Nevada, which provides much of the state's drinking water through the State Water Project, is at 173 percent of average and has replenished more than one-third of the state's snow-water deficit, according to the information from the California Department of Water Resources. Even Southern California, which derives much of its potable supply from the above-mentioned State Water Project as well the now full Colorado River basin, has been getting rain.
Rainfall totals since October are up by 75 percent in Los Angeles and 60 percent in Palm Springs.
So, what is a golf course superintendent to do? Conduct business as if the drought were still in effect, say two of the state's leading experts on golf course irrigation matters, th
Short term, this is a God send of relief. . . . In the long term, nothing really changes. Golf has a powerful incentive to continue to reduce its water footprint."
Although the drought officially is over for much of the state, efforts to conserve water and find additional ways to cut back are as important as ever, because while impoundments holding surface water are full, underground aquifers are not. Even if California has several more rainy winters, it will take years, if ever, to replenish the state's groundwater supplies.
Californians believing their days of using less water are over, are fooling themselves.
"Short term, this is a God send of relief," Kessler said.
"If we get into a drought again, and we will, water for recreation is one of the first things that goes. We get some consideration over parks, but not much. In the long term, nothing really changes. Golf has a powerful incentive to continue to reduce its water footprint."
Ali Harivandi, Ph.D., tells a similar message. The former University of California extension specialist and arguably the country's leading expert on reclaimed water, Harivandi still tells superintendents they should be managing water as if they are in the throes of drought.
"I caution everyone, especially in golf and turf in general, to continue what they have been doing, because it is confined business, and it cannot survive without good water. (Superintendents) should continue their efforts to reduce water use; continue and actually be more aggressive," Harivandi said. "I've been in this business for close to 40 years, and it's like a broken record: We have five or six years of major drought, and everybody and their cousins become environmentalists. Turf is the first prime material that becomes the villain, and golf is an easy target. Then as soon as the rain comes, everyone forgets about it."
Gary Ingram, CGCS, at Metropolitan Golf Links in Oakland is taking that message to heart.
With a sizeable portion of its irrigation water coming from groundwater aquifers, Metropolitan Golf Links had it better than most during the drought. Still, that didn't stop Ingram from cutting back his water use when he wasn't required to do so.
He turned off water to 20 acres that previously were irrigated, including out-of-play areas and the driving range, simply by shutting off the tap and making modifications to sprinkler heads.
Reducing irrigated acreage has been part of Ingram's turf management philosophy since he became a superintendent in the 1970s.
"We mandated ourselves to do what is right," Ingram said. "We reduced consumption because it was the right thing to do."
I caution everyone, especially in golf and turf in general, to continue what they have been doing, because it is confined business, and it cannot survive without good water."
As president of the California GCSA, Ingram is positioned to make a difference moving forward. It's an opportunity he is not taking lightly. He is working with other superintendents throughout California, university professors and members of the California Alliance for Golf in establishing a state BMP template that colleagues from the Oregon stateline to the Mexico border can use to help save even more water in the future.
With the recent release at the Golf Industry Show of the GCSAA-led BMP template that was completed by scientists at the University of Florida, the California contingent plans to use that national BMP to help draft their own plan.
Water will be just one part of that template, but it will be an important one nonetheless.
"What is important is that we look at the golf industry as part of the community," Ingram said. "And we have to look at water as a commodity that is important to the community. We have to do what's right. That means not only being aware of how much water we use, but where it goes, as well."
Whatever Ingram and the rest of the BMP task force come up with in regards to water use, Harivandi says the goal should be an ambitious one because of the threat of future drought and the state's groundwater crisis. He recommends golf courses further reduce the amount of irrigated land over the next several years, and he's pointing to an ambitious NASA project as proof that just about anything is possible.
"If golf courses want to stay viable, every golf course superintendent, owner and manager should be thinking about how they can reduce the amount of irrigated land by 50 percent by 2025. It's not impossible. If they're talking about putting someone on Mars by 2023, then I think we can do this," Harivandi said.
"It's not reducing water use by 50 percent; it's reducing the amount of land that is watered by 50 percent."
Such a plan would yield much more than just savings in the monthly water bill, says Harivandi.
"They will not only reduce their water footprint, but will also reduce inputs (including) fertilizers, pesticides, mowing, aerating, labor etc," he said. "That means significant reductions in maintenance costs. The price of water is also steadily increasing everywhere."