James Whitcomb Riley was a 19th century poet who is credited with saying: "When I see a bird that walks like a duck and swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, I call that bird a duck."Nearly 100 years after Riley's death, the only correlation that can be drawn between the man known as "the Hoosier poet" and the game of golf are the teams that compete at the South Bend, Indiana high school named in his honor. Still, if Riley, who lived from 1849-1916, were around today, even he could look at the game of golf and the problems facing it before finally concluding he must follow his own advice and call it a duck.
In absence of Riley's insight and wit, getting a handle on just where the golf industry is headed can be confusing depending on who one listens to.
Rounds played in May continued to trudge along with an unspectacular bump of 0.9 percent, according to Golf Datatech's Monthly Rounds Played Report. Golfer participation is down by 1.9 percent through the first five months of the year, compared with the same time frame last year, according to the study. Despite those numbers, National Golf Foundation president Joe Beditz was quoted in a recent interview in Marketwatch, a Wall Street Journal publication, saying "interest in the game continues to remain high with 2 to 3 million approaching the game each year."
Beditz went on to say the game's outlook is "steady or favorable." Never mind that NGF figures also show while the game attracted 3.7 million players in 2013, it lost 4.1 million.
Recently, the NGF also released initial findings from its ongoing Project M study into the relationship between millennials and golf. The study shows, according to NGF, that play is down among those age 18-34, in part, because of declining income.
Indeed, income today is down by 10 percent among those age 24-29 compared with income levels of the early 1990s, according to the study. It stands to reason that less disposable income means less money for extravagances - like golf. And coincidentally, golf participation when compared with play in the early 1990s is down by 40 percent in that same age group. That bears repeating. Income is down by 10 percent; golf rounds are down by 40 percent.
The same study shows that income today vs. the early 1990s was down 3 percent among those age 30-34 with a corresponding drop in golfer participation of 20 percent, leading the NGF to conclude: "This tells us that as Millennials earn more money, they play more golf. We expect this 'delay effect' to continue, and anticipate that as this generation ages, golf participation will gradually increase." Income down 3 percent; play down 20 percent, but it's going to get better.
NGF also blames long-term losses in golfer numbers on changing demographics during the past 20 years, especially in the 18-34 age group where the non-Caucasian population has grown by more than 60 percent, according to the study.
About 12 percent of the Caucasian population in that age group play golf, compared with 7 percent of non-whites, according to the study.
The study also shows that as non-whites age and earn more money, they play more golf, just not at quite the same rate as their Caucasian contemporaries, so it will get better we are told.
Here's even better news.
In the latest edition of the NGF Dashboard electronic communiqué, PGA of America president Ted Bishop writes "golf is not 'in a hole' nor is the 'golf market stuck in a bunker.' "
He says golf is dependent on the weather, which it is, and that despite the long-lasting effects of the past winter "rounds played are up this spring in areas of the U.S. not affected by the weather."
Here are some facts. Play was up in 24 states in May, led by North and South Dakota (up 29 percent) and Kansas and Iowa (up 21 percent), hardly barometers of the industry's health. It was down in 25 others, according to the Golf Datatech survey of 3,575 private and public-access courses nationwide (Golf Datatech doesn't measure rounds in Alaska). The greatest losses for the month were in New Mexico, where play was down by 11 percent. Despite some gains in May, year-to-date play in some sunbelt strongholds is down, including Hawaii, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas (all down 5 percent); Georgia (4 percent) and Florida (3 percent).
Monthly statistics are cyclical. Long-term trends are more telling, like the net 400,000 people who walked away from the game in 2013. Can't blame that on the weather. According to Pellucid Corp., there are now about 23 million golfers in the United States, down from 26 million in 2011 and way down from the 29.8 million in 2002. That puts the current number of golfers on par with 1988 statistics.
Among the net 400,000 golfers who left the game last year were more than 200,000 between the ages of 18-34.
Is golf dependent on the weather? Of course. Is it driven by economics? You bet. But there are plenty of other examples out there that call golf what it is: a game that struggles to attract and retain players because it is too hard, takes too long to play, lacks in customer service at the point of sale, is not friendly to newcomers, is too expensive and lags behind a plethora of activities competing for people's free time. Ignoring those issues solves nothing.
While the various factions of the golf industry should be applauded for all they do in an attempt to drive more interest in the game and grow its numbers, the truth is there are at least 3 million fewer golfers today than when The First Tee was launched in 1997.
Where is James Whitcomb Riley when you need him?